ASML Holding published third-quarter 2026 results on October 14 with net sales of 11.7 billion euros and net income of 5.0 billion euros, and warned that planned lithography output for 2027 and 2028 will not fully cover customer demand. CEO Christophe Fouquet linked the shortfall to rising short- and medium-term equipment forecasts driven by AI investment plans. For companies building on AI, this matters because fab capacity sets the pace for chip supply.
Record quarter and orders stretching to 2030
Quarterly net sales reached 11,662 million euros at a 57.5% gross margin, with net income of 4,960 million euros and basic earnings per share of 12.95 euros. The sales figure landed toward the high end of July guidance of 11.0-12.0 billion euros at 55-57% margin. ASML sold 113 new and 8 used lithography systems, while Installed Base Management sales reached 3,289 million euros. Cash and short-term investments stood at 12,735 million euros at quarter end.
Installed Base revenue exceeded guidance by 400 million euros, driven by productivity upgrades on machines already placed with customers, CFO Roger Dassen said in the results video. That upgrade business largely pushed gross margin above guidance. Net income also included 500 million euros from revaluation of the first tranche bought from Mistral AI. In the second quarter, ASML had reported 9,326 million euros in sales, 2,918 million euros in net income, 54.0% margin and 86 new systems sold.
Fouquet said order book momentum kept increasing quarter on quarter through 2026, with much intake now scheduled for 2028 and customers showing interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030. Customers report their own supply will not meet demand at least until 2028, while accelerating capacity plans and announcing new fabs. ASML expects to ship about 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, up more than 50% from 2025, and about the same number of DUV immersion tools as in 2025. Talks with customers are shifting beyond 2027.
What the tool shortage means for AI users
The capacity plan from July called for 30% more low-NA EUV output versus around 65 systems in 2026 for 2027, plus another 30% under study for 2028, with the same formula for DUV immersion from around 130 systems. Fouquet said adding 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028 will not meet demand, so ASML is studying further expansion, especially for 2028 and beyond. For AI adopters, that points to longer lead times for advanced compute if fabs cannot secure tools on schedule.
Part of the answer lies in upgrades that add output without new floor space. The NXE:3800F moves from 230 to 260 wafers per hour, shipping in small quantities in 2027 and aiding capacity in 2028 and beyond, while immersion tools shipped in 2027 will run at 330 wafers per hour. The YieldStar 550B overlay system raises productivity by 60% and supports the 14-angstrom logic node and 1D DRAM node. On High NA, TSMC asked ASML to lead work on a 12-inch reticle for the first half of next decade.
For the fourth quarter ASML guides sales of 14.2-15.2 billion euros at around 57% margin, with R and D costs near 1.2 billion euros and SG and A near 0.4 billion euros. Full-year 2026 sales should reach 44-45 billion euros at around 56% margin, up from July guidance of 43-45 billion euros at 54-56%. Dassen put 2026 growth at 36% versus 2025, with EUV up over 45%, non-EUV up around 20% and Installed Base up around 50%. The marker to watch is the Capital Markets Day on June 10, 2027, with updated longer-term views.
